The South Asian geopolitical landscape has changed because of Bangladesh’s shifting foreign policy and internal governance during a year of political unrest and strategic changes. Along with rising security concerns and an emerging China factor, the country’s recent shift from a pro-India stand to new ties with Pakistan has created new dynamics in a region already with a complex alliances and rivalries. These changes have significant consequences, especially for Pakistan and India and will probably affect the stability of the area.
Political Unrest
The year 2024 began with Bangladesh’s highly controversial general elections, in which the ruling Awami League, led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, won a fourth consecutive term. However, the elections were ruin by allegations of electoral fraud, as the main opposition, Bangladesh Nationalist Party, boycotted the polls, sparking widespread protests across the nation. These protests, initially focused on electoral fairness, expanded into larger demonstrations against the government’s policies, especially the controversial reintroduction of job quotas favouring government loyalists.
By mid-year, in July 2024, student-led protests grew violent, leading to clashes with the police and escalating unrest. Amid the violence, Sheikh Hasina fled the country in August 2024, marking the abrupt end of her 15-year tenure as Prime Minister. The political vacuum left by her departure led to the intervention of the military, which formed an interim government under Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. The military’s involvement signalled a shift toward a more neutral governance approach, with Yunus tasked with guiding Bangladesh back to democratic governance.
A New Chapter with Pakistan
Under the Yunus-led interim government, Bangladesh has made a notable pivot in its foreign policy. Historically, Bangladesh’s relations with India were central to its diplomatic strategy, especially under Sheikh Hasina, who maintained close ties with New Delhi. However, the new government’s approach has signalled a strategic realignment towards Pakistan, marking a dramatic departure from the India-centric policies of the previous administration.
A significant milestone in this shift was the resumption of direct maritime trade between Bangladesh and Pakistan for the first time in 53 years. This landmark event underscores a growing desire for economic cooperation between the two countries. In addition to this, Bangladesh has eased import restrictions on Pakistani goods and simplified visa processes for Pakistani citizens, enhancing bilateral engagement.
In a move that has raised concerns in India, Bangladesh has also sought to diversify its defence partnerships by procuring artillery ammunition and explosives from Pakistan. The deal and the two nations planned naval drills reflect a developing military partnership that may change the dynamics of regional security.
Strained Ties with India
The relationship between Bangladesh and India has been significantly impacted by the developing ties between Bangladesh and Pakistan. As Sheikh Hasina’s administration was recognized by its close links to New Delhi, India is now in a diplomatic hold because of her ousting and later asylum in India. The already fragile relationship has become more complicated because of Bangladesh’s demand for Hasina’s arrest.
The situation has been further intensified by reports of attacks on Hindu minorities in Bangladesh, which have sparked protests in India. These incidents have put additional strain on the relationship, but both countries have expressed a willingness to maintain cooperation despite the challenges.
Geopolitical Implications
The warming ties between Bangladesh and Pakistan have far-reaching implications for South Asia’s geopolitical balance. India, which has historically enjoyed significant influence in the region, now faces the challenge of countering Pakistan’s growing presence in Bangladesh. As Bangladesh deepens its defence and economic ties with Pakistan, India risks losing its regional dominance.
In response to these developments, India has ramped up its military presence along its 4,096 km border with Bangladesh. Increased border surveillance and security measures have been put in place to counter potential threats, particularly related to arms smuggling and cross-border terrorism. The comeback of radical Islamist groups, such as Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), poses a growing security risk, particularly in India’s northeastern states, and has prompted India to enhance its counter-terrorism efforts.
The China Factor
China’s geopolitical interests in Bangladesh are driven by both economic and strategic objectives. Despite political unrest in Bangladesh, China remains deeply invested in the region due to its strategic location, offering access to the Bay of Bengal and serving as a counterbalance to India’s influence in South Asia. Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has become heavily involved in infrastructure projects, further strengthening trade ties with Bangladesh and cementing its presence in the region.
China aims to maintain stability in Bangladesh to safeguard its investments and ensure the continuity of its economic and security interests. As Bangladesh gradually shifts closer to China, it could significantly alter the regional balance of power, potentially diminishing India’s influence and shifting dynamics in favor of Beijing. This growing economic partnership complicates the geopolitical situation in South Asia, with Bangladesh becoming an increasingly important player in China’s broader regional strategy.
India’s Strategic Response
India is at a turning point in its regional strategy as Bangladesh revises its foreign policy and strengthens its relationship with Pakistan. To safeguard its interests and maintain influence, India must adopt a multifaceted approach. Strengthening diplomatic engagement is crucial, as rebuilding trust with the Yunus-led government in Bangladesh requires addressing past grievances and offering economic and strategic incentives. Proactive dialogue can help counter Pakistan’s growing presence in the region. Additionally, enhancing border security is essential, with increased vigilance and investment in infrastructure needed to curb illegal arms smuggling, cross-border terrorism, and infiltration by radical groups. Collaborating on counter-radicalization efforts is another priority, as joint initiatives between India and Bangladesh can effectively combat terrorism and maintain regional stability. Furthermore, India must diversify its regional partnerships by expanding engagement with other South Asian nations. Strengthening ties with countries like Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka will help counterbalance the influence of Pakistan and China, ensuring India’s continued dominance in the region.
