Photo Courtesy: news9live.com/world/
On December 25, 2024, Pakistan carried out a series of airstrikes in Afghanistan’s eastern provinces. The strikes specifically targetted areas within Paktika regions infamous for their rugged landscapes and historical significance as militant hideouts. These actions, occuring under the cover of darkness, have not only heightened regional tensions but also stirred debates about sovereignty and security dynamics. What really led Pakistan to this moment of decisiveness? And what might it mean for the region already teetering on the edge?
Location and Timing of the Airstrikes
The airstrikes, conducted in the early hours of the morning—a calculated move to maximize suprise—focused on the mountainous terrains of Kunar and Nangarhar. These areas share a notoriously porous border with Pakistan, one that has been a bane for Pak’s security apparatus for years.
Why Pakistan Went Ahead With Strikes
Pakistan’s motivation, though not new, has been fueled by a potent mix of domestic insecurity and diplomatic frustration. The insurgent group Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has resurged with alarming tenacity, leveraging the Afghan border regions to stage attacks deep inside Pakistan. The strikes—brash as they seem—represent an act of exasperation as much as strategy.
A Threat That’s No Longer Containable
Photo Courtesy: moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/04/30
The TTP’s recent actions have placed Pakistan in a precarious position. Over the past year alone, suicide attacks, ambushes, and bombings have surged, creating ripples of fear across the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces. These regions are not just Pakistan’s geopolitical chessboard; they are its vulnerable underbelly.
For instance, a suicide bombing in Peshawar earlier this year claimed dozens of lives, sending shockwaves throughout the country. How could Islamabad stand idle while militants flex their muscles mere kilometers from its borders?
Diplomacy—or the Lack of It
It’s not as though Pakistan hasn’t tried. Repeated appeals to the Afghan Taliban, now in control of Kabul, have yielded little to no cooperation. Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers, ironically, deny harboring the TTP but refuse to take concrete steps to dismantle their presence. This diplomatic impasse has left Pakistan with few options.
The Ripple Effects in an Already Volatile Region
The strikes are not an isolated event; they’re a tremor in a landscape already fractured by historical grievances, strategic mistrust, and security dilemmas. What happens now—between Pakistan and Afghanistan—will undoubtedly echo across South Asia.
An Icy Relationship Turns Frostier
For Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government, these strikes are not just a breach of their airspace but a slap to their authority. The Kabul regime’s immediate response—a flurry of condemnation—is unlikely to end there. One might wonder: will this provoke a diplomatic freeze, or something more sinister?
A Powder Keg of Militancy
The rugged provinces that bore the brunt of these strikes are home to more than just the TTP. Groups sympathetic to Afghanistan, or antagonistic towards Pakistan, could retaliate. Imagine a scenario where these factions coalesce into a broader anti-Pakistan front. The implications? Grave.
The People—Caught in the Crossfire
Ordinary Afghans, who’ve borne decades of war, are once again thrust into turmoil. Families displaced by these strikes may seek refuge in Pakistan, exacerbating the already spiraling refugee crisis. Each family, a symbol of human cost—their stories a reminder of the fragility of peace.
Afghanistan’s Likely Moves
The Afghan government, while constrained, is unlikely to let these strikes go unanswered. What options do they have, though, against a militarily superior neighbor?
Words as Weapons
Already, Kabul has unleashed a barrage of statements denouncing Pakistan’s “aggression.” Expect this rhetoric to intensify, possibly extending to lobbying efforts at the United Nations or other international platforms. They may seek to portray Pakistan as an aggressor—a strategy designed to garner sympathy.
Covert Allowances
Although open retaliation is improbable, Kabul might tacitly allow the TTP more breathing room—a quiet yet potent form of payback.
The Long Game
Internally, the Taliban government could tighten its grip over border areas, signaling to Pakistan that they, too, can play the long game. But whether they have the resources and political will to do so remains to be seen.
