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The News
In a significant escalation of tensions following the Pahalgam terror attack, India has suspended water flow from the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River to Pakistan. According to reports from multiple news agencies, this action comes as part of India’s diplomatic offensive after suspending the Indus Waters Treaty. Water levels at Head Marala in Pakistan have plummeted dramatically, dropping to merely 4,300 cusecs from 87,000 cusecs just two days earlier, far below the normal flow of 25,000 to 30,000 cusecs. This development represents a major shift in India’s approach to water sharing with its neighbor and has far-reaching implications for both nations.
The Focus
- India has stopped 90% of the water flow from the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River to Pakistan, drastically reducing water levels downstream in Pakistan’s Punjab province.
- This move follows the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty by India after the Pahalgam terror attack, marking a major escalation in bilateral tensions.
- Officials have emptied the Baglihar reservoir and shut the dam gates; water will not resume flowing to Pakistan until the reservoir is refilled.
- Pakistan has called India’s actions “tantamount to water warfare,” warning of severe consequences and viewing the move as an act of aggression.
- India is reportedly planning similar actions at the Kishanganga Dam on the Jhelum River, further threatening Pakistan’s irrigation and food security.
- The Baglihar Dam, a gravity dam on the Chenab River, was commissioned in two stages (2008 and 2015) and has a total installed capacity of 900 MW.
- The dam project has been a longstanding point of contention, with Pakistan previously seeking World Bank arbitration over its design and operation Gayathri.
- India’s actions included “reservoir flushing” operations without notifying Pakistan, raising concerns of sudden floods or drought-like conditions downstream.
- The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, had previously survived wars and political upheavals between the two countries.
- The water stoppage is temporary due to technical limitations of the dam’s storage capacity and cannot be sustained indefinitely. But the power to control the water and its successful demonstration in response to India’s security concerns is a weapon in itself.
Recent Developments: Suspension of Indus Water Treaty
Suspension of Water Fow from Baglihar dam
On May 5, 2025, India implemented measures to restrict water flow to Pakistan through the Baglihar Dam located in Jammu and Kashmir’s Ramban district. According to WION news, India has stopped the flow of water from the Chenab river to both the Baglihar and Salal Dams following the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. The immediate impact has been visible in Pakistan, where the water level of the Chenab River has drastically declined at Head Marala in Pakistan’s Punjab province.
Response to the Pahalgam Attack
This action comes in direct response to the heinous terror attack in Pahalgam on April 22, 2025, which resulted in the deaths of 25 tourists and a Kashmiri citizen. Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed that there is “grief and rage” over the killings from “Kargil to Kanyakumari” and stated that the terrorists who carried out and plotted the attack would “get a punishment they cannot imagine”. The water stoppage appears to be part of a broader set of punitive measures India has implemented.
Current Status of Water Flow
Reports indicate that India has begun de-silting operations in the Baglihar dam and lowered the sluice gates, reducing downstream flow to Pakistan by up to 90%. Similar operations are reportedly planned for the Kishanganga dam on the Jhelum River. The water level decrease has been so significant that some areas in the AKU sector of the Jammu division have been left completely dry. These actions represent a clear warning sign and demonstrate India’s firm stance following the terror attack.
The Baglihar Dam Project: An Overview
Conception and Planning
The Baglihar Hydroelectric Project was conceived to harness the vast hydropower potential of Jammu and Kashmir, a mountainous area with numerous perennial streams and rivers. The project is located on the Chenab River and was designed to provide significant electricity generation capacity to meet growing energy demands in the region.
Construction Timeline and Challenges
Construction of the Baglihar Dam commenced in 1999 and faced various challenges, including objections from Pakistan during the construction phase. Despite these obstacles, the first phase (Baglihar Phase – I) was successfully commissioned in 200816. The project was divided into two stages, with Stage-I completed first and Stage-II following later.
Technical Specifications and Design Features
The Baglihar Dam is an impressive engineering achievement with significant technical specifications:
- It is a concrete gravity dam standing 143-144.5 meters high and 363 meters long.
- The dam has a width of 136 meters at the base and 8 meters at the top.
- Rather than being a solid structure, the dam consists of 22 blocks with 5 main spillways, 3 chute spillway gates, and one auxiliary spillway.
- The reservoir created by the dam has a substantial storage capacity of 475 million cubic meters.
- The total volume of concrete used in the dam construction is approximately 1.9 million cubic meters.
- For energy dissipation, the dam features splitters and a ledge on the spillway surface, plus a 70-meter plunge pool below the spillway.
Power Generation Capacity and Operations
The Baglihar Hydroelectric Project boasts impressive power generation capabilities:
- The project has a total capacity of 900 MW, utilizing a gross head of 130 meters.
- It features six Francis turbines, each with a capacity of approximately 150 MW.
- Phase I consists of three turbines with 150 MW nameplate capacity, while Phase II has three turbines with 151 MW nameplate capacity.
- The project includes an underground powerhouse measuring 221 meters long, 24 meters wide, and 51 meters high.
- The hydroelectric project generated 4,182 GWh of electricity as reported.
- The power from the project is purchased by Dakshin Haryana Bijli Vitran Nigam and Uttar Haryana Bijli Vitran Nigam.
*Nameplate Capacity: The maximum demonstrated power output of a generator or other piece of equipment, typically expressed in megawatts (MW).
Pakistan’s Opposition to Baglihar Dam
Initial Objections and Concerns
Pakistan has long been concerned about Indian dam projects on rivers that flow into its territory. In the case of the Baglihar Dam, Pakistan raised several objections during its planning and construction phases. The concerns primarily centered around potential violations of the Indus Waters Treaty, which governs water sharing between the two countries for rivers flowing through both nations.
The World Bank Intervention
When bilateral negotiations failed to resolve the disputes, Pakistan approached the World Bank, which acts as a guarantor of the Indus Waters Treaty. A neutral expert was appointed to examine Pakistan’s objections to the project. After thorough review, most of Pakistan’s technical objections were rejected, although some design modifications were recommended.
Resolution of Disputes
Following the expert evaluation, India agreed to certain modifications while maintaining the core design of the project. Eventually, the dispute was resolved, allowing India to proceed with the construction and operation of the Baglihar Dam. However, this did not eliminate Pakistan’s concerns about water security or set a precedent for resolving future water disputes.
In a similar case with the Kishanganga project, Pakistan objected to India’s diversion of waters from one tributary to another. When Pakistan took this issue to the World Bank, a Court of Arbitration ultimately ruled in India’s favor, establishing another precedent for India’s hydroelectric development rights under the treaty.
What are the Technical Limitations of Water Stoppage?
Dam Storage Capacity and Constraints
While India has taken the significant step of stopping water flow to Pakistan from the Baglihar Dam, there are inherent technical limitations to this action. The dam can only hold water up to a certain height before it must be released15. The reservoir’s storage capacity of 475 million cubic meters represents the maximum amount of water that can be retained.
Maximum Duration of Water Retention
The duration for which India can stop water flow is therefore limited by the dam’s maximum storage capacity and inflow rates. Once the reservoir reaches its capacity, excess water must be released downstream to prevent dam failure and potential catastrophic flooding. This reality means that India’s water stoppage is necessarily temporary in nature.
Engineering Realities of Controlled Water Flow
The Baglihar Dam was designed primarily as a hydroelectric project rather than as a water storage facility. Its operation involves maintaining appropriate water levels for power generation while ensuring the structural integrity of the dam. Complete stoppage of outflow for extended periods would require significant modifications to the dam’s design and operation protocols.
Seasonal Factors Affecting Water Management
Seasonal variations in river flow also impact how long water can be retained. During monsoon season, when river flows increase substantially, the dam would reach capacity much faster, necessitating the release of water downstream regardless of geopolitical considerations. Conversely, during drier seasons, the impact of water stoppage would be more severe for downstream users in Pakistan.
What are the Geopolitical Implications for India?
Strategic Advantages and Limitations
India’s decision to halt water flow demonstrates its willingness to leverage water as a strategic tool in response to security concerns. This marks a significant shift from previous positions where India generally adhered to the Indus Waters Treaty despite bilateral tensions. However, India’s ability to use water as a long-term pressure point is limited by the technical constraints of the dam and international legal frameworks. But still, whether India can halt the water or not, the capability to control the water and its demonstration as a response to its security concern is itself a kind of powerful weapon.
International Legal Position
By suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, India has taken an unprecedented step in the history of this water-sharing agreement. While India can justify its actions as a response to terrorism, this move could face scrutiny under international water law, which generally promotes equitable sharing of transboundary water resources. India’s position would likely emphasise that the suspension is temporary and directly linked to security concerns following the Pahalgam attack.
Diplomatic Consequences
India’s water stoppage is part of a broader diplomatic offensive that includes thinning diplomatic staff, shutting down the land border at Attari, expelling Pakistani nationals, closing airspace, and restricting Pakistan’s international trade routes. These comprehensive measures signal India’s determination to apply maximum pressure on Pakistan to address terrorism concerns.
What are the Consequences for Pakistan?
Agricultural Impact
Pakistan’s agriculture sector, which contributes significantly to its GDP and employs a large portion of its workforce, is heavily dependent on water from the Chenab River. The drastic reduction in water flow (down to 4,300 cusecs from a normal 25,000-30,000 cusecs) will likely damage crop production in Pakistan’s Punjab province, particularly affecting wheat, rice, and cotton cultivation.
Water Security Concerns
The water stoppage exacerbates Pakistan’s already precarious water security situation. Pakistan has experienced progressive reduction in its water resources over recent decades, with water inflow in the Ravi River having diminished significantly. India had previously constructed three dams on the Ravi since 2001, which has reportedly cut Pakistan’s share of water by nearly 75%. Currently, the Ravi only flows during monsoon season, while remaining nearly dry for the rest of the year.
Economic Repercussions
Beyond agriculture, reduced water flow affects Pakistan’s hydroelectric power generation capacity, industrial water usage, and domestic water supply. These compounding effects could create significant economic strain at a time when Pakistan is already facing economic challenges.
Public Reaction and Political Response
Pakistan has taken a firm stance on water issues, with officials stating that any attack on its water supply would be treated as an “Act of War”. Former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto dramatically declared that either “water or blood will flow”. Such rhetoric reflects the seriousness with which Pakistan views water security and suggests potential for further escalation of tensions.
What are the Long-term Prospects and Scenarios?
Potential for Continuous Water Restriction
For India to maintain long-term water restriction, significant infrastructural changes would be needed. As the search results indicate, “The only way to stop water for longer durations is to increase the dam’s height, which would not happen overnight”. This engineering reality means that permanent water restriction is not feasible without major modifications to existing infrastructure. But again the power to control the water and its successful demonstration in response to India’s security concerns is a weapon in itself.
Infrastructure Requirements for Extended Control
To gain greater control over water flow, India would need to substantially increase storage capacity across multiple dams or construct new storage-focused dams. Such projects would require years of planning, environmental clearances, and construction, spending millions of dollars, makes them impractical as immediate strategic options.
Future of the Indus Waters Treaty
The current suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty raises questions about the future of water sharing between India and Pakistan. Established in 1960 with World Bank mediation, the treaty has survived multiple wars and conflicts between the two nations. Its potential collapse would remove the established framework for resolving water disputes and could lead to increased uncertainty and conflict over water resources.
What is the way Forward?
India’s decision to stop water flow from the Baglihar Dam represents a significant escalation in India-Pakistan relations and demonstrates water’s increasing importance as a geopolitical tool. However, technical limitations mean this action is necessarily temporary rather than a permanent solution. The water stoppage serves primarily as a signal of India’s resolve following the Pahalgam attack and its willingness to use all available leverage against Pakistan.
For long-term resolution, diplomatic engagement remains essential. Water security is fundamentally important to both nations, and sustainable solutions must address both India’s security concerns and Pakistan’s water needs. As climate change further stresses water resources in the region, developing cooperative approaches to water management will become increasingly vital despite the challenging political landscape.
The current crisis highlights the intricate connection between water security, terrorism, national security, and international relations in South Asia. How India and Pakistan navigate this complex nexus will have profound implications for regional stability in the years ahead.
