From Colony to Country – Can Balochistan Break Away?

Introduction

In the rocky hills and dry plains of southwest Pakistan, a long-running conflict has become more critical. Baloch leaders and activists are now demanding much more self-governance and some even want full independence after recent protests turned violent. For many years, Baloch’s have said that Pakistan’s government treats their province like a colony, it takes advantage of its minerals and important ports but leaves people in poverty and under strict control. Now, with more clashes between fighters and the army and growing attention from around the world, one big question stands out: could Balochistan ever separate from Pakistan?

In the last few weeks, this conflict has grabbed global headlines. On May 9, 2025, well-known Baloch writer and activistMir Yar Baloch announced on social media ‘X’ that he was setting up an independent “Republic of Balochistan.” He asked India and the United Nations to recognize this new country. “We have claimed our independence, and we request India to allow Balochistan’s official office, and embassy in Delhi,” he said in a post that many people shared. He also called on the United Nations to send peacekeepers and to arrange a vote by its member countries to accept Baloch sovereignty.

This surprising claim came right after India’s “Operation Sindoor” on May 7, which crossed into Pakistan to hit militant camps. That strike had already made tensions between India and Pakistan much worse. So far, no country has recognized Balochistan’s independence, and Pakistan’s government hasn’t officially replied. Still, the announcement shows how active and organized the Baloch diaspora and nationalist groups have become, both in diplomacy and online.

To see what’s really at stake, we need to look back at why Baloch’s have felt so unhappy for so long. Their frustration stretches back to deals made under British rule, promises that were broken after Pakistan became independent, and ongoing arguments over how much self-rule, development, and respect for Baloch identity they should have. By understanding this long, complicated history, we can begin to judge whether an independent Balochistan is still just a far-off dream or if it might happen.

Timeline of Balochistan’s History, Politics and Tribal Dynamics

Historical Foundations of Balochistan

• 1666 – Khanate of Kalat founded – Mir Ahmad Khan I brought together various Baloch tribes into the Khanate of Kalat, the region’s first major confederacy.
• 1875 – Treaty of Kalat – The British Raj and Baloch tribal leaders signed the Treaty of Kalat, making Kalat a princely state under British control while letting its Nawab keep some power.
• Late 1800s – British administrative zones – Colonial officials split Balochistan into –
  • A directly ruled “British Baluchistan” province
  • Leased areas (e.g., Quetta)
  • Tribal agencies
  • Princely states of Kalat, Las Bela, Kharan, and Makran.
• 1884 – Most of Balochistan annexed – By 1884, the British had formally added nearly all of Balochistan into British India; Kalat’s ruler still held limited self‑rule.
• 12 August 1947 – Brief independence – After British rule ended, Kalat declared itself independent of both India and Pakistan though this lasted only months.
• 27 March 1948 – Accession to Pakistan – Facing pressure, Kalat’s Nawab Ahmad Yar Khan signed the Instrument of Accession, turning Kalat into part of Pakistan (later Balochistan province).

Political Evolution within Pakistan

• 22 November 1954 / 5 October 1955 – One Unit plan launched Prime Minister Muhammad Ali Bogra announced and then implemented the “One Unit” scheme, merging all of West Pakistan (including Balochistan) into one province.
• 1958–59 – Revolt of Khan Nauroz Khan – Tribal leader Nauroz Khan fought against One Unit’s loss of representation. His uprising was crushed, and several relatives were executed.
• 1 July 1970 – One Unit dissolved – Pakistan’s President General Yahya Khan ended the One Unit scheme. Balochistan was re‑established as its own province, now including former princely states and Gwadar.
• 1973 – Bhutto’s crackdown and insurgency – Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto dismissed Balochistan’s elected government, jailed its leaders, and sent in the army. Tribal figures like Mir Hazar Khan Khoso and Sardar Ataullah Mengal led a violent uprising.
• 1973–77 – Bloodiest decade  – Over these four years – Pakistan’s military lost about 3,300 soldiers & up to 8,000 Baloch fighters and civilians died. The war ended in 1977, but mistrust remained high.
• Post‑2004 and recurring unrest – Periodic flare‑ups continued in 1948, 1958, 1962, 1973–77, and since 2004 driven by disputes over jobs, royalties, and self‑rule.

Tribal Dynamics and Internal Fragmentation

• Major tribes – The Marri, the Bugti, and the Mengal each have strong local followings and can raise armed supporters, but they often distrust one another.
• 2006 – Dividing the insurgency – The Pakistani army made separate deals with some tribal leaders to isolate Nawab Akbar Bugti’s faction, weakening overall unity.
• Late 2024 – Local abductions spark protest – In Khuzdar district, a Baloch woman named Asma Jattak was reportedly abducted by state‑linked “death squads.” Local protests blocked the highway demanding her release.
• Rise of urban activism – New groups, like the student‑led Baloch Yakjehti Committee, have brought educated youth into the struggle, bridging tribal divides with a shared national cause.
• Ongoing fragmentation – Even today, tribal rivalries and separate local deals continue, making it hard for Baloch’s to unite around one clear goal whether greater autonomy or full independence.

Balochistan’s history spans from 1600s tribal confederacies to colonial treaties, forced mergers into Pakistan, and armed rebellions. Economic grievances and tribal divisions have driven a century-long struggle for identity, resources, and self-rule. Recent protests and abductions highlight ongoing but divided efforts by both rural tribes and urban activists to seek justice and autonomy.

Balochistan’s Bold Push for Independence

Baloch nationalism began in the 1930s when groups like the Anjuman‑e‑Ittehad‑e‑Balochan and the Kalat State National Party first asked for more rights and even an independent Kalat. After Pakistan’s provinces were merged under the 1955 One Unit plan, many Baloch’s felt ignored and pushed for local self‑rule through parties such as the Balochistan National Party and the National Awami Party. When talks failed, armed groups took over. The main one, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), was labelled a terrorist organization by Pakistan in 2006 and later by the UK and the US. Since 2004, the BLA and its break‑off factions have attacked security forces, settlers, and foreign targets, especially those linked to China‑Pakistan projects.

In March 2025, a BLA splinter known as Jeeyand hijacked the Jaffar Express train, holding passengers hostage and showing it could carry out major operations. Militants now sometimes use suicide bombers including women and aim at Chinese workers and infrastructure. On the political front, veteran chiefs like Ataullah Mengal and Akbar Bugti are still admired, while younger leaders such as Sana Baloch and Dr. Mahrang Baloch represent civilian resistance. Modern activists increasingly call not just for autonomy but full independence, appealing to international bodies like the UN to recognize Balochistan’s right to self‑rule. This shift shows the movement has grown from seeking local reforms to demanding a separate nation.

Rich Lands & Empty Promises

Balochistan supplies most of Pakistan’s natural gas and minerals but contributes only about 3.7% to the national GDP, down from 4.9% in the 1970s. Despite its wealth, it remains Pakistan’s poorest province, with the highest poverty and infant mortality rates at the national level. 1973 law fixed Balochistan’s gas royalties far below those of Punjab and Sindh, so most profits from its Sui gas fields go elsewhere.

Under the China‑Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), China has invested billions in Balochistan, building Gwadar port, an airport, and planned rail and road links. When Gwadar’s new airport opened, thousands of locals protested, accusing outsiders of “looting our resources with no gain to local Baloch”. Even today, residents say they still lack basic services like electricity, clean water, and reliable healthcare, despite the region’s strategic projects.

Large-scale projects have uprooted villagers for power plants, pipelines, and mines, sparking claims of “land grab”. The Reko Diq copper‑gold project has also fuelled controversy over foreign companies receiving overly generous stakes. In water‑scarce Balochistan, even small developments strain groundwater, worsening local hardship. Baloch activists warn that without a fair share of resource revenues and jobs, unrest will persist, regardless of any security measures.

External Influences

Pakistan’s army blamed “Afghan handlers” and an “Indian mastermind” for the March 2025 Jaffar Express hijacking, claims India flatly rejected. Observers say Afghanistan’s rugged border areas offer Baloch militants safe havens and weapon supplies. To the west, Iran’s Baloch insurgents have run a separate rebellion, and in April 2025, the Iran-based Balochistan National Army killed eight Pakistani workers in Sistan‑Baluchestan province, prompting Islamabad to seek Iran’s “full cooperation” in investigations. Pakistan has also carried out occasional cross‑border strikes against Baloch groups in Iran, adding to regional tensions.

China’s massive CPEC investments in Balochistan have led Beijing to beef up security there, including private security deployments and railway protection to Gwadar. Despite this, militants target Chinese interests – an October 2024 suicide attack near Karachi Airport killed two Chinese engineers, underscoring local hostility to foreign projects. Meanwhile, in 2025, UN human rights experts publicly urged Pakistan to end abuses in Balochistan and release detained activists. Baloch diaspora groups have also rallied abroad, with London and Amsterdam protests in 2024 decrying “Pakistani atrocities” and demanding attention to disappearances.

These cross-border rivalries and global interests from RAW and Afghan networks to Iran, China, and Western bodies shape Balochistan’s fate. Pakistan accuses outside powers of fuelling unrest, while Baloch leaders hope international pressure will win them greater rights or even independence.

State vs. Insurgency

Pakistan’s government treats the Baloch insurgency as a “war on terror,” blaming militants for attacks aimed at derailing the China‑Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and calling for firm action to protect national projects. In contrast, Baloch people report widespread repression by security forces, with frequent reports of arbitrary arrests, torture, and restrictions on free speech. UN experts in April 2025 condemned Pakistan for using broad anti‑terror laws to label peaceful activists as criminals and blocking the internet to silence protest.

After militant bombings in 2024 and the March 2025 train hijacking, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military spokesmen insisted that militants whom they described as foreign‑backed must be crushed to secure Balochistan and safeguard CPEC. The army frequently launches large operations; in one train‑rescue mission, all 33 hijackers were killed in a special offensive.

Many Baloch see heavy‑handed tactics such as detention without trial and torture as collective punishment. In late April 2025, dozens of Baloch youth from the student‑run Baloch Yakjehti Committee held a hunger strike and street protests in Quetta after news of CTD custody torture spread, only to face tear gas and mass arrests. Despite Pakistan’s military strength and refusal to allow plebiscites or expanded autonomy, analysts warn that security measures alone fuel new recruits and deepen resentment. Both sides remain far from compromise, and each clash whether a mountain skirmish or a Quetta demonstration drives the conflict further into stalemate.

Silenced Voices & Digital Resistance

Journalists and bloggers in Balochistan face daily threats, forced disappearances, and digital blackouts that cripple free speech. Despite this, activists use encrypted apps and social media often under hashtags like #FreeMahrang to share news of raids, abductions, and protests. The state responds with internet shutdowns, platform takedowns, and arrests, creating a fierce information war alongside the armed conflict.

Local reporters receive death threats or bribes to stay silent. In April 2025, renowned journalist Niaz Baloch warned that “no segment of society is safe in Balochistan,” and that critics risk being “forcibly disappeared or killed” by “death squads”. That same week, Gwadar correspondent Javed M.B. was told by phone to “prepare your shroud,” a clear assassination threat. Rights groups estimate that dozens of journalists and writers have been killed or vanished since the 2000s.

Authorities frequently cut mobile and internet services during protests or attacks. U.N. experts in April 2025 condemned these “repeated internet blackouts” for blocking information and silencing dissent. During nationwide Baloch shutdowns early 2025, entire districts lost cell data to quell demonstrations. In response, Baloch activists turned online. Citizen journalists use encrypted messaging and diaspora networks to post videos of raids and missing-persons alerts. Exile-run news sites aggregate these reports, and hashtags like #FreeMahrang circulate among overseas supporters. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s government pressures platforms to remove Baloch content and activists often face post-online-post harassment.

March, Resistance, Repression

In December 2023, nearly 400 Baloch women and children marched over 1,600 km to protest forced disappearances, carrying photos of loved ones and chanting for justice while slogans such as “Our daughters, our sisters, our mothers will not be safe under tyranny” highlight their pivotal role. When they reached Islamabad, police used tear gas and detained women and children, sparking nationwide sympathy. Viral footage of the crackdown compelled authorities to release most protesters.

Between March and May 2025, at least four Long March organizers including Dr. Mahrang Baloch, Sammi Deen Baloch, Beebow Baloch, and Gulzadi Baloch were arrested under anti‑terrorism laws without any links to violence. Dr. Mahrang had already become an international symbol nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize after her 2024 abduction. Amnesty International decried her treatment as part of a “disturbing escalation” against peaceful dissent.

Beyond the march, Baloch women lead family‑centred protests: mothers and wives hold sit‑ins with photos of disappeared relatives, often facing harassment. Reports of sexual violence by security forces are rare but likely underreported due to fear. The state’s branding of these activists as “terrorists” underscores its fear of an “awakened Baloch population led by its women”.

Global Protests

Across the UK, US, Canada, Sweden, and beyond, Baloch communities in exile tirelessly promote their homeland’s rights and freedoms. In September 2024, the Free Balochistan Movement (FBM) led protests in London and Amsterdam, carrying placards of “disappeared” activists and demanding that world leaders condemn “Pakistani atrocities” in Balochistan. In London, demonstrators even marched to 10 Downing Street, urging the British Prime Minister to recognize what they called the “genocide of the Baloch people”.

In early 2025, Baloch expatriates living in India’s Rajasthan and Gujarat formally petitioned the United Nations, asking it to recognize Balochistan’s “legitimate right to self‑determination” and to treat the region as “under occupation” by Islamabad. These efforts framed decades of what activist’s call “occupation and oppression” as crimes against humanity, hoping to spur a global response.

In Washington DC, a small but growing number of Baloch Americans and allied NGOs have briefed congressional staffers and met with State Department officials about human rights abuses in Balochistan. Occasional letters and hearings on Capitol Hill urge Pakistan to reform its policies but so far, unlike the Kashmir issue, Balochistan remains largely seen by Western governments as Pakistan’s internal affair.

Still, it keeps Baloch stories in international media and can embarrass Pakistan diplomatically. Islamabad, in turn, accuses India and “Western handlers” of using exiles to destabilize the country. Whether or not these claims are true, the global advocacy of the Baloch diaspora adds fresh pressure and spotlight to their long struggle.

Books Banned, Heritage Declining in Balochistan

Although Balochi and Brahui are official national languages of Pakistan, very few schools teach in them, so most Baloch children attend Urdu or English‑medium schools far from home, adding to their sense of cultural alienation. There are almost no state‑run institutions dedicated to Baloch history or literature, leaving students with little opportunity to learn about their own heritage.

In January 2025, police in Gwadar raided the “Balochistan Kitab Karwan” book fair, confiscating hundreds of books and detaining several student organizers, one of whom exclaimed, “If we cannot even have book fairs, what are we supposed to have?”. Writers’ associations and social media erupted in condemnation, calling it the “peak of state oppression”.

At national events like the Pakistan Capital Cultural Festival, Baloch handicrafts and poetry do appear, but organizers say they must self‑censor to avoid any symbolism that could be seen as separatist. Meanwhile, neighbouring provinces receive official funding for regional museums and language academies, but in Balochistan most government spending goes toward security forts or generals’ residences, not cultural programs. This sense that the state promotes a single, centralized identity at the expense of Baloch heritage drives many to demand stronger protections for their culture and even greater autonomy under the law.

Three Paths Ahead

What lies ahead for Balochistan?

Balochistan’s future could follow one of three routes – continued tension, genuine power‑sharing, or full independence though the last remains unlikely without huge external change.

Most likely is a steady state of unrest, where Islamabad keeps a strong military presence, Baloch militants carry out random attacks, and the government calm down some leaders with development funds or ministerial posts. This approach avoids major concessions but leaves core grievances like unfair gas royalties and cultural neglect unresolved.

A second path would see Pakistan accept real devolution under its own 18th Amendment. This means sharing more gas and mineral revenues, granting local law‑and‑order powers, creating jobs for Baloch youth, and protecting Baloch language and history in schools. Over time, this could calm many in the province by showing that political dialogue and legal reforms can improve daily life.

The third scenario, outright independence, is viewed as the least likely near‑term outcome. Pakistan’s security strategy and China’s investments in CPEC projects, particularly Gwadar port, make separation less likely. An independent Balochistan would need far more outside support or a major regional disturbance, neither of which seems on the horizon.

Military action alone won’t resolve the crisis. Insurgency attacks indicate that lasting peace needs attention to human rights, economic marginalization, and accountability within Pakistan’s constitutional framework. Heavy-handed tactics can increase insurgency recruitment and undermine public support. Observers expect a compromise with increased development spending, limited cultural and financial independence, and ongoing protests by Baloch activists. Thus, Balochistan’s struggle continues, balancing security measures and the promise of political change.

Unfinished Struggle

Balochistan remains in a unstable state after centuries of alliances, colonial deals, forced mergers, and uprisings. Despite its mineral wealth, calls for self-rule and fair resource sharing have been met with strict security measures, leaving many Baloch feeling ignored and exploited. Recent events, including Mir Yar Baloch’s 2025 independence declaration and high-profile protests and militant actions, indicate deep anger and growing motion for change.

Full independence seems far away due to Pakistan’s strong military presence and China’s investment in CPEC projects. Patchwork development efforts and political actions have not earned widespread trust. Experts agree that genuine power sharing such as more gas royalties, local jobs, cultural rights, and legislative authority is necessary to end unrest. Without these reforms, conflicts and protests will continue to create new protests.

Balochistan’s future will depend on whether Islamabad chooses dialogue over force, whether China tolerates a more wide-ranging approach, and whether Baloch leaders can maintain unity in their quest for justice. If meaningful self-governance is not achieved, the province may remain in a state of ongoing conflict and unfulfilled potential.