What is China’s Ambitious Plan to Build the World’s Largest Dam on the Brahmaputra?

Summary Ponits

• China’s Ambitious Project: Plans to build the world’s largest hydroelectric dam on the Yarlung Zangbo/Brahmaputra River, costing approximately $140 billion, with a power capacity of 60 GW.
• Current Largest Dam: The Three Gorges Dam in China, with a capacity of 22.5 GW, is currently the world’s largest. It features a reservoir stretching over 600 kilometers and has significantly contributed to flood control, navigation, and power generation.
• The Great Bend–Rogue River: The Yarlung Zangbo is called the “Rogue River” in China due to its unpredictable flow and massive energy potential, especially in the Great Bend region. This is where the river makes a dramatic U-turn near the Namcha Barwa peak, dropping over 2,000 meters in elevation. This Great Bend enables the river flow to India through Arunachal Pradesh. At the same time, this natural feature makes it ideal for generating hydroelectric power.
• Historical Aspect: Ancient dams on the Yellow River were built for irrigation and flood control, reflecting China’s long history of large-scale water management projects. Lessons from those projects inform modern undertakings like this dam.
• Balance of Power: With the construction of dam, China will be able to flood and create drought at its will riparian states India and Bangladesh. Thus balance of power will shift towards China in the region.

Three Gorges Dam of China. Presently, world’s Largest Dam. Photo Courtesy: edition.cnn.com

Introduction

China has revealed plans to build the world’s largest hydroelectric dam on the Brahmaputra River, or Yarlung Zangbo at an estimated cost of $140 billion. With a proposed capacity of 60 GW, which is nearly three times that of the Three Gorges Dam. This initiative underscores Beijing’s commitment to sustainable energy while intensifying geopolitical tensions in South Asia.

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The Brahmaputra: China’s Rogue River

Photo Courtesy: nenews.in

1. Origin:
   • The Brahmaputra River originates from the Angsi Glacier near Mount Kailash in the Tibet Autonomous Region of China.
   • Its source lies at an elevation of approximately 5,150 meters in the Himalayas.
2. Course in Tibet:
   • Known as the Yarlung Tsangpo, it flows eastward for about 1,625 kilometers across the Tibetan Plateau.
   • It carves through deep gorges, including the Tsangpo Gorge, considered the world’s deepest canyon.
3. Course in India:
   • The river enters India through Arunachal Pradesh, where it is called the Siang or Dihang River.
   • It flows southwest into Assam as the Brahmaputra, becoming a wide, braided river with numerous islands.
   • The river continues through Assam, receiving tributaries like the Subansiri, Manas, and Lohit.
4. Course in Bangladesh:
   • In Bangladesh, the river is called the Jamuna.
   • It joins the Ganges (Padma) and later merges with the Meghna River before emptying into the Bay of Bengal.
5. Importance and Dependence:
   • Agriculture:
     • Fertile floodplains support extensive rice and jute cultivation in Assam and Bangladesh.
     • It sustains tea plantations in Assam.
   • Freshwater:
     • The river is a vital source of drinking water and domestic use for millions.
   • Fisheries:
     • Supports livelihoods through fishing in Assam and Bangladesh.
   • Transportation:
     • Serves as a major waterway for goods and people in Assam and Bangladesh.
6. Challenges:
   • Seasonal flooding affects agriculture and settlements, particularly in Assam and Bangladesh.
   • Climate change poses risks through glacial melt and changing rainfall patterns.

The Brahmaputra is thus a lifeline for the regions it traverses, shaping the economy, culture, and ecology of its basin.

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Background and Historical Context

The Brahmaputra/Yarlung Zangbo River

The Brahmaputra River, originating as the Yarlung Zangbo in Tibet, stretches over 2,900 kilometers, cutting through Tibet, India, and Bangladesh before emptying into the Bay of Bengal. It ranks among the world’s most voluminous rivers, with an average annual discharge of about 19,800 cubic meters per second. This river sustains millions of lives across its basin, supporting agriculture, fisheries, and livelihoods in South Asia.

The Great Bend and “Rogue River”

The Great Bend of the Yarlung Zangbo is a unique geological formation where the river makes a sharp U-turn around the Namcha Barwa peak, dropping over 2,000 meters in elevation. This stretch is infamous for its unpredictability and powerful currents, earning it the moniker “Rogue River” in China. This natural feature holds immense potential for hydroelectric power generation.

China’s Historical Interest in the Region

China’s interest in exploiting the hydropower potential of the Yarlung Zangbo dates back to the early 2000s. The river’s steep gradients and abundant flow—especially in the Great Bend—make it an ideal candidate for large-scale hydropower projects. The Zangmu Dam, operational since 2015 with a capacity of 510 MW, was China’s first major endeavor in the region. This new project, however, represents a quantum leap in ambition and scale.

Historical Links to Yellow River Dams

China’s expertise in managing large rivers stems from its ancient efforts on the Yellow River, known for its devastating floods and sedimentation issues. Historical projects, such as the Dujiangyan Irrigation System (dating back to 256 BCE), showcase the country’s long-standing focus on water management. Lessons from these ancient projects influence modern initiatives like the Yarlung Zangbo dam, particularly in addressing flood control and resource utilization.

India’s Run-of-the-River Projects

India has developed several run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects in Jammu and Kashmir, such as the Baglihar and Kishanganga dams. These projects, which aim to harness hydropower while maintaining natural river flow, have likely prompted China to assert its control over the Yarlung Zangbo to preempt regional competition over water resources.

Why Build a Massive Dam in a High-Altitude Area?

Energy Security and Economic Goals

China’s demand for clean, renewable energy is soaring. By 2025, its total energy consumption is expected to exceed 7,000 terawatt-hours (TWh), with hydropower playing a pivotal role in reducing carbon emissions. The new dam’s estimated 60 GW capacity would contribute approximately 300 TWh annually, enough to power over 30 million households.

Strategic and Political Motivations

Locating the dam in Tibet reinforces China’s administrative and economic grip over this contested region. Additionally, it serves as a demonstration of China’s engineering capabilities, solidifying its status as a global leader in infrastructure development.

Utilization of Natural Resources

Tibet’s topography and water resources remain largely untapped. Harnessing the hydropower potential of the Yarlung Zangbo aligns with China’s strategy to integrate its western territories into the national economy while addressing regional disparities.

Construction Plan and Stages

Feasibility Studies and Planning

Comprehensive geological and hydrological surveys have been conducted, identifying the Great Bend as the ideal site due to its steep descent—one of the largest on any major river worldwide. This natural drop could potentially generate massive amounts of energy.

Key Construction Phases

1. Preparatory Phase: Building access roads, setting up logistics hubs, and relocating affected communities, expected to impact approximately 15,000 people.
2. Foundation and Structural Work: Excavation and stabilization activities to establish a solid base for the dam. Innovative techniques will be employed to address the challenging terrain.
3. Main Dam Construction: The dam’s design will feature advanced spillways and reservoirs to regulate water flow and maximize energy efficiency.
4. Power Generation Infrastructure: Installation of high-capacity turbines capable of withstanding the high-altitude and high-flow conditions.
5. Transmission Network: Laying thousands of kilometers of power lines to connect the dam to major consumption centers across China.

Timelines

The project’s first phase is expected to be completed by 2030, with full operational capacity achieved by 2035.

Implications for Low Riparian States

Impact on Water Availability

India and Bangladesh, which rely on the Brahmaputra for irrigation, drinking water, and hydropower, could face significant disruptions. The river accounts for nearly 30% of India’s freshwater resources and sustains over 60% of Bangladesh’s population.

Flood and Drought Risks

By regulating water flow, China could inadvertently or deliberately influence seasonal flooding patterns. For instance, excessive water release during monsoons could intensify floods in Assam and Bangladesh, while withholding water during dry periods might exacerbate droughts.

Sediment Deprivation

The dam would trap vast amounts of sediment, reducing downstream soil fertility. This could severely impact agriculture in Assam’s Brahmaputra Valley, a region already grappling with environmental challenges.

Geopolitical Concerns

The absence of a formal water-sharing agreement between China and downstream nations adds to the tensions. India and Bangladesh have repeatedly called for greater transparency and consultation, fearing that China’s unilateral actions could set a dangerous precedent for transboundary river management.

Seismic Risks and Environmental Concerns

Earthquake-Prone Zone

The Great Bend lies in one of the most seismically active regions on Earth. The 1950 Assam-Tibet earthquake, with a magnitude of 8.6, caused widespread destruction and remains a stark reminder of the risks. Building a dam in such a zone heightens the danger of catastrophic failure, which could unleash massive flooding downstream.

Ecological Consequences

1. Biodiversity Loss: The dam could disrupt habitats for rare species like the snow leopard and black-necked crane.
2. Deforestation: An estimated 50,000 hectares of forest could be cleared for the project, exacerbating climate change.
3. Altered River Dynamics: Changes in flow patterns could negatively impact aquatic ecosystems and fisheries, critical for local livelihoods.

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Why China is building such a Large Dam?: Strategic Reasons

The strategic benefits to China for building this massive dam are multifaceted, encompassing economic, energy, political, and geopolitical dimensions:

1. Energy Security and Renewable Goals

• The dam’s 60 GW capacity aligns with China’s push to reduce carbon emissions and transition to renewable energy sources.
• By producing an estimated 300 TWh annually, it reduces reliance on coal and other non-renewable energy sources, helping China meet its carbon neutrality goals by 2060.
• It positions China as a global leader in renewable energy and advanced engineering, enhancing its soft power.

2. Economic Development in Tibet

• Tibet, historically underdeveloped, benefits from infrastructure investment tied to this project. The dam creates jobs, improves local infrastructure, and integrates the region more deeply into China’s economic framework.
• Hydropower export potential from Tibet could be an additional revenue stream, connecting with broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) goals.

3. Geopolitical Leverage

• Control over the Brahmaputra/Yarlung Zangbo grants China a strategic advantage in regional water politics. With no binding treaties governing water-sharing with India and Bangladesh, China gains leverage over two downstream nations highly dependent on the river for agriculture, drinking water, and energy.
• The ability to regulate water flow can serve as a subtle tool of coercion or influence during diplomatic standoffs.

4. Strategic Control Over Natural Resources

• By harnessing the Yarlung Zangbo’s hydropower, China maximizes the utility of natural resources in Tibet, asserting sovereignty over a contested region.
• It prevents downstream nations from unilaterally developing significant hydropower projects on the Brahmaputra, maintaining China’s dominant position in the region’s water management.

5. Flood and Drought Management

• The dam can act as a flood control mechanism for Chinese territories along the river. By regulating water flow, China ensures better management of seasonal floods within its borders, benefiting agriculture and urban centers.

6. Technological and Engineering Prestige

• The construction of the world’s largest dam in an extreme and remote environment showcases China’s technological prowess and engineering expertise. This reinforces China’s image as a global leader in infrastructure and innovation.

7. Strengthening Domestic Unity

• Large-scale infrastructure projects in regions like Tibet are often tied to broader efforts to reinforce national unity and integrate remote areas with mainland China. The dam underscores Beijing’s commitment to Tibet’s development, which is politically significant in maintaining control over the region.

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Strategic Implications and Responses

China’s Water Diplomacy

By controlling the Yarlung Zangbo’s flow, China gains significant leverage over downstream nations. This power dynamic underscores the urgent need for regional frameworks to ensure equitable resource sharing.

Countermeasures for India and Bangladesh

1. Enhanced Dialogue: Pursuing bilateral and multilateral discussions with China to promote transparency.
2. Regional Alliances: Strengthening cooperation with Nepal and Bhutan to present a united front on water-sharing issues.
3. Infrastructure Investment: Developing reservoirs and flood management systems to mitigate dependency on upstream flows.
4. International Advocacy: Leveraging global platforms like the UN to draw attention to the potential risks posed by the dam.

Conclusion

China’s mega-dam project on the Brahmaputra/Yarlung Zangbo River represents both a marvel of modern engineering and a source of profound regional uncertainty. While the benefits of clean energy are undeniable, the risks to downstream nations, the environment, and regional stability cannot be ignored. A collaborative approach to transboundary water management will be essential to balance development, ecological preservation, and geopolitical harmony.