Is China Transforming Modern Warfare with Abundance of Drones

Photo Courtesy: iottechnews.com

Summary in Points

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) plans to deploy one million drones, signaling a transformative shift in military strategy.
Drones have proven their effectiveness in conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas engagements, demonstrating cost-efficiency and innovative applications.
Low-cost, commercially available Drones are challenging traditional military assets, including tanks, fifth-generation aircraft, aircraft carriers and much hyped extremely expensive Air Defense Systems.
Mechanized warfare is becoming obsolete as drones expose the vulnerabilities of heavy armor and conventional weaponry.
India must adapt by investing in indigenous drone development, counter-drone technologies, and swarm capabilities.
Future defense strategies should prioritize mobility, electronic warfare, and integration of AI-driven systems.

The Transformative Role of Drones in Modern Warfare

Lessons from the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The ongoing war in Ukraine has become a proving ground for the military use of drones, demonstrating their profound impact on the battlefield. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces have deployed drones extensively for reconnaissance, artillery targeting, and even direct attacks. This conflict has revealed how drones, often inexpensive and commercially sourced, can tip the scales in modern combat.

Cost-Efficiency: In one documented instance, a Ukrainian unit used a $3,000 commercial drone to drop grenades and modified Anti Tank Mines on a Russian T-72 tank, valued at approximately $3 million. The drone not only disabled the tank but also exposed the vulnerability of heavily armored vehicles to low-cost aerial threats.
Swarm Tactics: Ukraine has experimented with swarm drones, where dozens of drones operate in coordination to overwhelm enemy defenses. These swarms have successfully bypassed traditional anti-aircraft systems, which were not designed to counter such threats.
Adaptability: Ukrainian forces have shown ingenuity by repurposing civilian commercial drones for military use. For instance, drones like the DJI Mavic, originally intended for photography, have been modified to carry modified explosives or guide artillery fire with unprecedented accuracy.

Insights from the Israel-Hamas Conflict

The recent clashes between Israel and Hamas, as well as engagements involving Hezbollah and Houthi forces, have further highlighted the evolving role of drones. Non-state actors, often operating on shoestring budgets, have utilized drones to punch far above their weight.

Precision and Psychological Impact: Hamas has used drones to target Israeli infrastructure with surprising precision. Beyond physical damage, the psychological impact of persistent drone activity has been significant, creating a constant sense of vulnerability.
Cost-Effectiveness vs. Damage: For as little as $1,000, Hamas has been able to deploy drones capable of damaging multi-million-dollar Israeli defense systems, including radar and surveillance installations.
Asymmetric Warfare: These conflicts illustrate how Drones have been able to level the playing field, allowing smaller forces to challenge technologically superior adversaries effectively.

Are Mechanized Forces Becoming Obsolete?

The rise of drone warfare has cast doubt on the future of traditional mechanized forces like Main Battle Tanks and Armored vehicles. These systems, once the cornerstone of military strategy, are increasingly seen as liabilities on modern battlefields.

Vulnerability to Drones: During the early months of the Ukraine conflict, over 1,500 Russian tanks were destroyed or disabled. Many of these losses were attributed to drone-guided artillery strikes or direct drone attacks, which exploited the tanks’ limited ability to defend against aerial threats.
Economic Imbalance: A modern tank like the U.S. M1 Abrams costs upwards of $9 million, excluding operational expenses. In contrast, a swarm of attack drones can be procured and deployed for a fraction of this cost, delivering comparable, if not superior, battlefield results.
Strategic Shifts: Increasingly, militaries are questioning the utility of investing in heavy mechanized forces. Instead, there is a growing emphasis on mobility, electronic warfare, and precision weaponry that can adapt to the fast-changing dynamics of drone-dominated warfare.

Challenging Expensive Technologies: Fifth-Generation Aircraft and Aircraft Carriers

The proliferation of drones has not only jeopardized mechanized forces but also raised questions about the relevance of high-cost military platforms such as Fifth-Generation Aircraft and Aircraft Carriers.

Fifth-Generation Aircraft:
- Aircraft like the F-35 Lightning II cost approximately $80 million per unit, with lifetime operational costs running into billions. Yet, these advanced jets have been shown to be vulnerable to swarms of low-cost drones that can saturate their defensive capabilities.
- In recent exercises, simulated drone swarms successfully overwhelmed fighter jets by attacking from multiple angles, rendering the aircraft’s stealth and advanced sensors less effective.
Aircraft Carriers:
- At a construction cost of $13 billion, aircraft carriers like the USS Gerald R. Ford represent significant investments. However, they are increasingly seen as “floating targets” in the age of drone warfare.
- Long-range drones armed with precision-guided munitions can strike carriers from distances that traditional ship defenses struggle to cover. In one simulation, a swarm of drones was able to breach a carrier group’s perimeter and disable key systems, highlighting their vulnerability.
Challenging Expensive Air Defense Systems:
- The Iron Dome, one of the world’s most advanced air defense systems costing $50 millions upwards, each Tamir interceptor missile costs $50,000, has faced challenges in intercepting frequent, low-cost attacks combining rockets and drones.
- Saturation tactics, involving simultaneous launches of multiple projectiles, have exposed the limitations of even the most sophisticated defense networks, making them financially and operationally unsustainable over prolonged engagements.

Vulnerabilities of Conventional Weaponry

Traditional weapon systems are struggling to keep pace with the rapid evolution of drone technology:

Artillery: Drones have been used to spot artillery positions with devastating accuracy, guiding counter-battery fire that neutralizes these assets before they can relocate.
Small Arms and Troops: Even infantry units are at risk, as drones can conduct surveillance, direct fire, or drop small explosives on exposed positions.
Air Defense Systems: Conventional air defense systems are often designed to target larger aircraft or missiles. Swarms of small drones can evade detection or overwhelm these systems, rendering them ineffective.

Implications for India

India cannot afford to ignore the lessons from these conflicts, especially given China’s aggressive push to integrate drones into its military doctrine. To remain competitive, India must undertake a comprehensive modernization of its armed forces.

Photo Courtesy: asiatimes.com

Key Areas of Focus

Indigenous Drone Development:
- India should invest heavily in developing low-cost, high-performance drones. Collaborations with Public Private Partnership can accelerate progress. Careful opening up the Drone manufacturing to Private Players can be a game changer forb India.
- Startups in India’s thriving tech ecosystem should be incentivized to innovate in this space.
Counter-Drone Technologies:
- India needs to prioritize electronic warfare systems, directed energy weapons, and AI-driven counter-drone solutions to neutralize potential threats.
Reevaluating Legacy Systems:
- The army’s reliance on heavy mechanized forces should be reassessed. Investments should shift toward lighter, more mobile platforms equipped with drone defense systems.
Building Swarm Capabilities:
- Swarm drones should become a central component of India’s offensive and defensive strategies. Leveraging AI and Machine learning is crucial to making these systems effective.

Future Procurement Strategies

Focus on procuring drones tailored for surveillance, precision strikes, and swarm operations.
Develop integrated systems where drones, satellites, and ground-based sensors work seamlessly to provide real-time battlefield intelligence.
Enhance funding for research in electronic warfare and AI to counter emerging drone threats.

Conclusion

China’s plan to deploy one million drones represents a paradigm shift in military strategy, one that is already reverberating across global armed forces. Recent conflicts have demonstrated the disruptive power of drones, exposing the vulnerabilities of traditional weaponry and casting doubt on the utility of expensive platforms like tanks, fifth-generation aircraft, aircraft carriers and costly air defense systems.

For India, the message is clear: the future of warfare lies in innovation in technology, adaptability, and cost-efficiency. By investing in indigenous drone development, counter-drone technologies, and swarm capabilities, India can not only safeguard its national security but also emerge as a leader in the military technologies of tomorrow.